Reading between the lines: In what critics say is a blow to the peak oil theory, BP has announced that it found a large oil field in the Gulf of Mexico. Reading closer the article had this to say:
Because the oil is so deep underwater and difficult to extract, the price of oil will need to be above $70 a barrel to make drilling profitable, energy analysts said.
BP declined to estimate the size of the new reserve, but a company executive said that it could be bigger than the three billion barrels of oil equivalent, combining oil and gas stocks, thought to be in the recently discovered Kaskida field nearby
That’s not very reassuring considering our daily world consumption rate is about 84 million barrels per day. That comes out to be about a month’s worth of oil supply. Sounds like they are scraping the bottom of the proverbial barrel to me. Is discovering a month’s worth of oil really big news? Check out this interesting op-ed from Michael Lynch about the fallacy of peak oil. Not very convincing either.
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The Oil Drum did a pretty thorough counterargument to the Lynch piece:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5711
Peak Oil doesn’t mean that we are out of oil, just the downward slope of supply. It means that future finds will be harder and more expensive, so this find fits the model exactly.
I agree, which is why I broke down the amount of the find in terms of how small it actually is. Critics of peak oil don’t acknowledge that there is a peak or that we haven’t reached it yet. I think this is evidence that supplies are dwindling.
Indeed, and that the supplies left are more difficult and expensive to extract.
I had to stop reading the NYT article because of its utter stupidity. A theory is something not yet proven. Dr. M. King Hubert proved peak oil when America stopped being the worlds largest oil producer because of the decline in oil field capacity (here in the states). So that is point one.
Point two, this foolish man points to the fall in oil prices to further is argument. Before I go on let me say I am going to make the next statement based on economic principles. I have a degree in International Economics so I understand a thing or two on how that works. Oil prices last year went up because of a weakening dollar. Bush printed TONS of money (the most in our history) to fund his “projects”. As a result, the dollar value dropped and goods priced in dollars naturally increased (dollar value and the cost of goods priced in dollars have a inverse relationship). Well, now the great deleveraging is underway, dollar is up (that’s a result of deleveraging). So naturally the cost of oil and gold for that matter will decline (again a inverse relationship between dollar value and the cost of goods priced in dollars). What happens when the deleveraging ceases? It will make last years price hikes look like a walk in the park. Given the level at which our currency is being debased (Obama is continuing with the printing money policy)
Besides, the foolish man who wrote that article obviously doesn’t know history. This thing ALWAYS happens, there was PEAK coal, Peak Whale blubber etc. etc. Man uses up whatever non renewable energy or (slow renewing energy in the case of coal and whale blubber) and they move on to the next energy source. However, I think they already have the alternative, its just getting the sheople to transition. I think the next things will be a return to nuclear ie pebble bed nuclear reactors, a revamped energy grid (not for EVs though) and bio diesel (specifically produced from Algae). It will be a three pronged approach and it is going to take a decade or two before it is fully realized. I also think new urbanism such as Miami 21, PlaNYC etc are inevitable, you have no choice when you are faced with higher energy cost.
Anyone interested in how all this works should first learn how our fiat monetary system works. There is a GREAT series of videos on youtube called Money as Debt you can find the first in the five part series here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVkFb26u9g8
Once you understand that they (the media and other vested interest) can not fool you with silly op-ed pieces meant to delude people. Secondly check out a series of videos on biodiesel http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cyoKTbxerpQ
lastly, get a video from netflix or however you get your videos called the end of suburbia.
Mustafa
Thanks for the thoughtful and thorough response Mustafa!
The abysmal ignorance and scientific illiteracy of conservatives never ceases to amaze me. A mere extra billion barrels here and there and they call it a so-called “vast” discovery.This in turn inclines them to believe they can continue driving their SUVs and extended cab pickups from now until eternity.Never mind the VAST rate of consumption.
And furthermore,nothing like oil company brainwashing propaganda and corporate profits right down to the last barrel,gallon and drop……fight against energy efficiency and alternatives……then leave all the rest of human society stranded and marooned without hope.